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Bay area housing bubble 202111/21/2023 So the beauty of any conclusion drawn from this analysis is definitely in the eye of the beholder. And as I often say, these kinds of rankings are part art and part science. Remember, the Bubble Watch Index reflects relative exuberance among these markets. On a scale of zero bubbles (no bubble here) to five bubbles (five-alarm warning) … THREE BUBBLES … for California. In May, only 4.3% of those surveyed said yes, the lowest level since February 2013 and down from 7.1% a month earlier 6% a year ago and a five-year average of 6.3%. consumers and asks “Do you have plans to buy a home in the next six months?” Another viewĮvery month since 1978, the Conference Board polls U.S. Sales speed: 28 days on market, down 50% in a year - No. $460,833 value, or 11% overvaluation - 41st highest of 47.Īppreciation: 22% list vs. 11.Īnd the state’s riskiest market, by this math, was No. ![]() Sales speed: 21 days on market, down 45% in a year - No. Sales speed: 49 days on market, down 17% in a year, above - No. 10.4% value, or 127% overheated - tops of 47. $783,610 value, or 42% overvalued - eighth-highest of 47.Īppreciation: 23.6% list vs. 32 of the 47 was Los Angeles-Orange counties … Inventory: Down 6% in a year - last of 47. Sales speed: 27 days on market, down 33% in a year - No. 7.4% value or 84% overheated - fourth-highest. $1.24 million value or 14% undervalued - last of 47.Īppreciation: 13.6% list vs. Sales speed: 22 days on market, down 37% in a year - No. home prices, according to the Case-Shiller index, have historically averaged an annual increase of 5.5 since 1975. home prices between July 2023 and July 2024, surpassing the 6.3 forecast made just the previous month. $1.36 million value or 9% undervalued - 46th lowest of the 47 metros studied.Īppreciation: 3.3% list vs. The latest revision projects a 6.5 rise in U.S. ![]() The dissectionįolks seem willing to pay up dramatically in more “affordable” markets, part of a buying frenzy fueled by low mortgage rates and limited choices for house hunters. Then came San Jose ($1.24 million) Seattle ($679,000) and San Francisco ($1.06 million). The Washington, D.C., region ($506,000 median) had the lowest bubble score followed by Minneapolis-St. Next came a tie of Southern California’s Riverside and San Bernardino counties ($512,000) and Tampa-St. The Bubble Watch Index grades the Atlanta metropolitan area ($392,000 median list price) as the nation’s frothiest market followed by Detroit ($285,000) and Jacksonville ($349,000). a year ago) year’s inventory change and year’s rent change. value increases) selling speed (days on market vs. values) overheating (list-price gains vs. ![]() The scorecard is based on average rankings for overvaluation (listing prices vs. Source: The Bubble Watch Index is my trusty spreadsheet analysis of April homebuying data from Zillow and covering 47 big markets. “ Bubble Watch” digs into trends that may indicate economic and/or real estate market troubles ahead.īuzz: Bay Area housing doesn’t look very frothy when compared with other large U.S.
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